Electric power generators show considerable interest in electric vehicles for many reasons. They buy thousands of such vehicles to burnish their reputation. We know of one planning to sell such vehicles in its retail stores because it provides largely green electricity in that country, so this will also be a green promotion.
There is great interest in planned supergrids controlling the time they charge electric vehicles, in order to balance the system. However, talk of grids taking power from electric vehicles misses the point that, for at least ten years, the batteries in these vehicles will struggle to provide sufficient range without having electricity taken from them for grid purposes.
Indeed, on all sober forecasts, there will not be enough electric vehicles in the world to significantly benefit grids even if they could share electricity. Most electricity generators seem to agree about all this, their planning extending beyond the ten year horizon.
Indeed, it is rare for a generator to express concern about overload on its system caused by forecasted electric vehicle sales over the next ten years as seen in the projections of the IDTechEx report Electric Vehicles 2010-2020 and Car Traction Batteries - the New Gold Rush 2010-2020.
In Canada, we can see some disagreement however. The energy chief of demand-response power utility Toronto Hydro Anthony Haines has recently warned if 10% of households in its service territory within Canada adopted electric vehicles it would crash the electricity grid, according to reports.
The company said electric cars consume around triple the amount of energy that is usually used in the average home, with the extra charging load at peak after-work hours, news service the star.com reported. The assertion has been disputed by power companies in Detroit and Los Angeles.
A report by Electric Power Research Institute and Natural Resources Defence Council in 2007 said electricity demand would rise ten per cent if a third of all miles driven in the US were powered by the electric grid. Haines suggested that an energy timer to manage demand and conserve energy could be used to tackle this problem.
This month, Toronto Hydro requested the Ontario Energy Board pass an 18 % rise in electricity rates to become effective in May 2011, which would cost households an extra $5 per month. Pankaj Sardana, Vice President of Toronto Hydro, said the company expects it will sell less power as a result of its energy conservation programmes because it will have to charge more for each kWh to cover rising costs. There are therefore many issues involved here.
IDTechEx feels that advances in charging stations should be taken seriously such as the solar powered versions patented by Toyota and others and ones that take off peak energy and store it in large lithium batteries to be delivered on-peak. In certain regions other forms of energy harvesting can be used to power charging stations. However, there is no crisis here. Battery swapping is certainly feasible with professionally managed, standardized vehicles such as taxis. Each of these initiatives can make a small but significant contribution to managing grid load when the challenges arrive in the second decade from now.
Hybrids win for ten years
All of the most reputable forecasters of sales of electric vehicles - and it is only the on-road ones that matter here - show hybrids in the lead for the next ten years. Among the leading car makers, only Nissan prioritises pure electric cars. KPIT Cummins has announced an affordable hybrid conversion for commercial vehicles and Mitsubishi now sells a hybrid outdoor forklift. Hybrid buses are in the lead with BAE Systems the leader in their powertrains.
Ten percent of households having an electric vehicle for main transportation will probably coincide with about 20% of electric vehicles sold in that year being electric and that is more than ten years away. On that day, a high proportion will be hybrids and they have smaller batteries than pure electric on road vehicles.
Eventually - 15 years - pure electric on road vehicles will dominate, coinciding nicely with many more countries generating electricity in a green manner.
For more attend: Future of Electric Vehicles which uniquely covers the whole electric vehicle market - land, sea, air whether hybrid or pure EV - with emphasis on future breakthroughs.
