Which EV motor type will win?

In its new report, Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022 IDTechEx has examined 123 electric motor manufacturers making traction motors for pure electric and hybrid electric vehicles by land, water and air. They are widely spread across the world as shown below.

 

 

 

We have also analysed 212 electric vehicles past, present and planned and again land water and air. There is broad application of electric vehicle traction motors with brushes but this will not survive the decade.

 

 

 

Many interviews were carried out and these continue as only IDTechEx continually updates its reports. One conundrum we are wrestling with is which motor technology will win. By this we mean take about 70% of the money spent on vehicle traction motors in 2022. In an industry demanding much improved performance, the contenders are all brushless motors for many reasons given below.

 

 

Advantages and disadvantages of brushless traction motors is increasingly unimpressive as shown below.

 

 

 

They are permanent magnet synchronous motors PMAC (sinusoidal waveform) and the closely related BLDC (trapezoidal) and asynchronous "AC induction" motors all of which provide regenerative braking and reverse with minimal cost and hassle.

While it is true that the problems of switched reluctance motors are being overcome such as acoustic noise, fine tolerances and low efficiency and they dispense with permanent magnets, it is too much to hope that they will come from nowhere to dominate the global market in only ten years. The testing programs and then decision making timescales of major vehicle manufacturers are too long for that, even if they are convinced by what has been achieved.

 

Although cars (hybrid and pure electric) will be responsible for less than 50% of the electric vehicle value market every year up to and including 2022, their motors will reach 51% of the EV traction motor market in 2022 partly due to all those in-wheel motors coming in. The primary battleground for winning the motor crown will therefore be cars. After that comes two wheelers then industrial/commercial then military. Win at one of these and make a good showing in cars and you win overall. Win at most of these and make some showing in cars and you win overall.

 

 

So who is winning now? Well today, more is spent on motors for all those e-bikes in China than the whole of the hybrid and pure electric car industry worldwide. And remember it is a mere Club Car golf-cart that is still the best selling pure electric car in the world in numbers. All are kicking out brushed commutator motors and most have replaced them with permanent magnet AC brushless motors - today's winner with about 70% of the numbers of motors in electric vehicles. However, by value, the dominance of brushless PM motors is less impressive because brushless asynchronous motors already dominate the heavy end.

This points to the elephant in the room. The primary growth in value of the electric vehicle market and thus its motor value is at the heavy end. Think of the military using electric runabouts today and hybrid main battle tanks tomorrow. Think of the massive program of China to flood the country with large electric buses. Think of outdoor hybrid lifters and earthmovers saving money and maintenance and performing better. In all these sectors asynchronous motors are outselling alternatives. They even have 44% of the market for light commercial and industrial vehicles and trucks and that may be rising. At the small end there is one fast growing sector and that is two wheelers providing Chinese cities do not continue banning them. Their motors are almost all made in China down to a very tight price and, yes, they use magnets and are brushless in the main.

 

 

Meanwhile, the motor suppliers are mainly looking backwards with far too many making traction motors with brushes and brushless synchronous motors.

 

 

 

 

For more read Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2012-2022 . It is an essential up to date reference book on the subjects and the new $1500 "IDTechEx Encyclopedia of Electric Vehicles" comes free with this motor report. The Encyclopedia contains mainly unique material - tables, diagrams etc - not on the web and it covers the many new acronyms, words and jargon being used in this industry, not just the old stuff. Also attend Electric Vehicles Land Sea Air USA 2012 in San Jose, California 27-28 March 2012.where a large number of electric vehicle manufacturers not seen in conventional EV events will clarify their electric motor needs, including MotoVolta, LLC motorbikes, SolTrac farm tractors, WheelTug aircraft electrification, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute AUVs and manufacturers of cars, industrial, commercial, military, e-bike and other EVs.